Sustainable Trends and Determinants of Wheat Cultivation in Poland (2004–2023): A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Productivity, Resilience, and Climate Adaptation

Wheat farming is of utter importance in every country around the world, since it is a critical crop that contributes to food security and rural development. Given this importance, this research work investigates trends, determinants, and spatial variability in Polish wheat production between the years 2004 and 2023, with a key interest in productivity, resilience, and sustainable farming. This work will apply spatiotemporal analysis, statistical modeling, and ARIMA forecasting in the identification of the environmental, economic, and policy factors that interact with the wheat yield. Determinants include climatic variables, temperature, and precipitation, production costs, and market prices. These results point to great regional disparities in yield; the apparently better regions, such as Opole and Pomerania, enjoy exceptionally good environmental conditions with good access to modern technology, while regions like Podlasie and Subcarpathia are characterized by poor soil quality and a shortage of resources. This paper has pointed out the need for differential intervention policies that could contribute to reducing such yield gaps, increasing resilience to climate change, and hence contributing to sustainable wheat production growth. The stabilized yields projected underline the resilience of the sector to various challenges, from climate variability to market fluctuations. The results also indicate how innovative practices, supported by enabling policy frameworks, are essential in the promotion of wheat production in an environmentally friendly way, such as precision agriculture. The present research work will provide useful tools for policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders by providing active insights into how to achieve equitable and sustainable agricultural development in Poland.