Forecasting-Scenario-Heuristic method proposal for assessment of feasibility of steel production scenarios in Poland – Managerial implications for production engineering

The goal of presented research is to assess the feasibility of environmental scenarios for the Polish metallurgical sector until year 2020. The study employed: (I) Quantitative elaboration of steel production volume forecasts for Poland until year 2020; (II) Qualitative evaluation of factors influencing production processes in the environment of metallurgical companies; (III) Analytic Hierarchy Process for assessment of probability of occurrence of particular environmental scenarios for Polish steel industry: (i) optimistic (steel production volume exceeding the projected average of 8.895 mln tons); (ii) pessimistic (steel production volume lower than the projected average of 8.895 mln tons); (iii) base (steel production volume conform to the projected average of 8.895 mln tons, with a possible 10% deviation). The relevance of decision-making criteria has been assessed by scientists and practitioners with specialization in metallurgy. In result the most probable scenario has been chosen. Practical outcome are managerial conclusions from the perspective of production engineering. Main research limitations originate from the territorial limitation to Poland. Further research should be led in the metallurgical sectors of other European and emerging economies.