An Econometric Analysis of CO₂ Emission Intensity in Poland’s Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace Steelmaking Process

This study examines the carbon and energy intensity of steel production in Poland, with a particular focus on the Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) process. Given its dominant role in the industry, decarbonizing this process is crucial for achieving the “Net Zero” targets outlined in the Strategy 2050 climate policy. The transition toward deep decarbonization presents significant technological challenges, primarily the shift from high-carbon BF-BOF technology to low-carbon alternatives, such as hydrogen-based direct reduction iron in Electric Arc Furnaces (H₂-DRI-EAF—Hydrogen-Based Direct Reduction Iron in Electric Arc Furnaces). Using time series analysis and econometric modeling, we assess the impact of technological innovation and investment on the emission intensity of BF-BOF technology. The findings highlight the necessity of radical technological transformation for deep decarbonization in the steel industry, reinforcing the urgency of adopting low-carbon solutions. A successful sustainable transition in the steel industry requires a holistic approach, integrating economic incentives, regulatory frameworks, and innovation-driven strategies to foster a competitive, resource-efficient, and environmentally responsible steel sector in the era of deep decarbonization.