The use of modified Monte Carlo simulation for the analysis of transient states of the industrial power network

Nowadays, when analyzing the industrial power network operation, the assessment of the possibility of cooperation of existing power sources with newly planned ones is required more and more often. During the power system (PS) analysis, a problem of the lack of reliable parameters of the mathematical models of newly designed and already operating in PS devices often appears. This problem can be solved in many ways, i.a. by carrying out repeated calculations for the values of unknown parameters being changed in a given search interval. In the paper, a method for estimating the reliability of the obtained results based on monitoring the statistic factors describing the set of solutions obtained is presented. This method is similar to methods called Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis of different statistic factors was performed within the framework of the research. The analysis was made for a factory medium voltage (15 kV) power network. The investigated network included the already installed asynchronous generator of 1.9 MW rated power and a newly designed synchronous generator of 4.56 MW rated power. Low-voltage induction motors were connected to the network. The transient states associated with a transient short-circuit in a line connecting the network of the factory with a high voltage network were investigated. The uncertainty of the mathematical model parameters of the generating units and the uncertainty of the PS load state were taken into account based on the measured and recorded average values of the active power taken from the PS.