Structural Drivers of Poland’s Renewable Energy Transition (2010–2023): Empirical Insights from Regression and Cluster Analysis

This research investigates the structural drivers of Poland’s energy transition to decarbonization and wider sustainable development goals. With a focus on the period 2010–2023, we use longitudinal regression analysis and cluster-based segmentation to examine the dynamic interactions between investment expenditure, deployed renewable capacity, and innovation expenditure in driving renewable electricity production. Our findings suggest that although installed capacity continues to be the nearest cause of renewable energy output, innovation expenditure has an extraordinarily large marginal effect, acknowledging the system-transformational role of technology innovation in low-carbon systems. Regression specifications suggested that the establishment of Poland’s transformation process is not only guided by the growth in capital, but also by the systemic embedment of knowledge-driven innovation. Cluster analysis reveals three successive stages of sectoral development—initial growth (2010–2013), consistent expansion (2014–2019), and rapid transformation (2020–2023)—with blended policy actions and structural effects. Despite the long shadow of Poland’s coal-linked past and post-2015 stagnation in innovation, the results signal a major move towards a more low-emitting, resilient power system. The report offers empirical facts and prescriptive evidence to guide policy formulation supporting collective, innovation-driven approaches essential for driving energy change in coal-dominated economies.