Metoda drzew decyzyjnych a analiza opcji rzeczowych w procesach oceny efektywności ekonomicznej przedsiewzieć energetycznych

Commonly accepted and preferred methodology of economic evaluation of energy projects is discounted cash flow analysis (DCF). Though, for the reason of ignoring managerial flexibility, this approach is not the most suitable evaluation technique for high-risk ventures. The pricing of flexibility enable advanced methods of economic evaluation such us decision tree analysis (DTA) and real options valuation (ROV or ROA). Both approaches use decision nodes for hierarchical structurization of decision problem taking into account all real operation alternatives. The paper, perceiving common features of both approaches, emphasizes advantages of the ROV analysis which are mainly connected with avoiding of constant RADR problem and applying, in return, the risk-free rate which is independent of project risk structure.