Method of prediction the probability of a strong tremor on the basis of observed changes of mining ground subsidences

The method of prediction the probability of a strong tremor on the basis of the observed changes in the size of the mining subsidences was presented. The method uses the logit model, on the basis of which the probability of a strong tremor in time T with the energy exceeding some limit is calculated. The indices used for the description of the seismicity of a rock mass are the number of tremors N recorded in a given period of time and total seismic energy E recorded in this period in a specific region. Observed changes in mining ground subsidences are characterized in the present method cross-section area of the subsiding trough Pw along the observation line parallel to the situated advancing longwall front. The work show the algorithm of the method and the examples of its use in practice in the region of conducted in the conditions of high seismic activity of the exploited longwall.