Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel

Aleksander Król; Małgorzata Król; Krystian Szewczyński

doi:10.1007/978-3-032-14094-4_4

Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

Urban road tunnels are a reasonable remedy for the inconvenience due to the congested road traffic. However, they bring specific threats, especially those related with the possibility of fire outbreak. The work is a case study for an urban road tunnel, and uses detailed data on traffic intensity and its generic structure. It was shown that although tunnel fire accidents are very rare events, a single fire can be expected in a relatively short time perspective, up to 10 years. The probability of a catastrophic fire is only serious in longer time horizons (about 50 years). The next important finding is that the hourly distribution of the fire accident probability is uneven, it is significantly higher at daytime, reaching the maximum value at 3 pm. This probability on weekends is significantly lower than for workdays. Such quantitative findings may serve as a basis for decisions on temporary restrictions on heavy vehicle traffic.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Smart and Environmentally Friendly Contemporary Road Traffic and Transportation Engineering Solutions
Editors	Elzbieta Macioszek, Grzegorz Sierpinski, Irena Jurdana
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	42-54
Number of pages	13
ISBN (Print)	9783032140937
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-14094-4_4
Publication status	Published - 2026
Event	21st Scientific and Technical Conference on Transport Systems Theory and Practice, TSTP 2025 - Katowice, Poland Duration: 9 Sept 2025 → 10 Sept 2025

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Volume	1769 LNNS
ISSN (Print)	2367-3370
ISSN (Electronic)	2367-3389

Conference

Conference	21st Scientific and Technical Conference on Transport Systems Theory and Practice, TSTP 2025
Country/Territory	Poland
City	Katowice
Period	9/09/25 → 10/09/25

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Keywords

fire accident likelihood
tunnel fire
urban road tunnel

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Control and Systems Engineering
Signal Processing
Computer Networks and Communications

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-032-14094-4_4

Cite this

Król, A., Król, M., & Szewczyński, K. (2026). Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel. In E. Macioszek, G. Sierpinski, & I. Jurdana (Eds.), Smart and Environmentally Friendly Contemporary Road Traffic and Transportation Engineering Solutions (pp. 42-54). (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 1769 LNNS). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-14094-4_4

Król, Aleksander ; Król, Małgorzata ; Szewczyński, Krystian. / Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel. Smart and Environmentally Friendly Contemporary Road Traffic and Transportation Engineering Solutions. editor / Elzbieta Macioszek ; Grzegorz Sierpinski ; Irena Jurdana. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026. pp. 42-54 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems).

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abstract = "Urban road tunnels are a reasonable remedy for the inconvenience due to the congested road traffic. However, they bring specific threats, especially those related with the possibility of fire outbreak. The work is a case study for an urban road tunnel, and uses detailed data on traffic intensity and its generic structure. It was shown that although tunnel fire accidents are very rare events, a single fire can be expected in a relatively short time perspective, up to 10 years. The probability of a catastrophic fire is only serious in longer time horizons (about 50 years). The next important finding is that the hourly distribution of the fire accident probability is uneven, it is significantly higher at daytime, reaching the maximum value at 3 pm. This probability on weekends is significantly lower than for workdays. Such quantitative findings may serve as a basis for decisions on temporary restrictions on heavy vehicle traffic.",

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Król, A , Król, M & Szewczyński, K 2026, Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel. in E Macioszek, G Sierpinski & I Jurdana (eds), Smart and Environmentally Friendly Contemporary Road Traffic and Transportation Engineering Solutions. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 1769 LNNS, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 42-54, 21st Scientific and Technical Conference on Transport Systems Theory and Practice, TSTP 2025, Katowice, Poland, 9/09/25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-14094-4_4

Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel. / Król, Aleksander ; Król, Małgorzata ; Szewczyński, Krystian.
Smart and Environmentally Friendly Contemporary Road Traffic and Transportation Engineering Solutions. ed. / Elzbieta Macioszek; Grzegorz Sierpinski; Irena Jurdana. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026. p. 42-54 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 1769 LNNS).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel

AU - Król, Aleksander

AU - Król, Małgorzata

AU - Szewczyński, Krystian

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - Urban road tunnels are a reasonable remedy for the inconvenience due to the congested road traffic. However, they bring specific threats, especially those related with the possibility of fire outbreak. The work is a case study for an urban road tunnel, and uses detailed data on traffic intensity and its generic structure. It was shown that although tunnel fire accidents are very rare events, a single fire can be expected in a relatively short time perspective, up to 10 years. The probability of a catastrophic fire is only serious in longer time horizons (about 50 years). The next important finding is that the hourly distribution of the fire accident probability is uneven, it is significantly higher at daytime, reaching the maximum value at 3 pm. This probability on weekends is significantly lower than for workdays. Such quantitative findings may serve as a basis for decisions on temporary restrictions on heavy vehicle traffic.

AB - Urban road tunnels are a reasonable remedy for the inconvenience due to the congested road traffic. However, they bring specific threats, especially those related with the possibility of fire outbreak. The work is a case study for an urban road tunnel, and uses detailed data on traffic intensity and its generic structure. It was shown that although tunnel fire accidents are very rare events, a single fire can be expected in a relatively short time perspective, up to 10 years. The probability of a catastrophic fire is only serious in longer time horizons (about 50 years). The next important finding is that the hourly distribution of the fire accident probability is uneven, it is significantly higher at daytime, reaching the maximum value at 3 pm. This probability on weekends is significantly lower than for workdays. Such quantitative findings may serve as a basis for decisions on temporary restrictions on heavy vehicle traffic.

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Y2 - 9 September 2025 through 10 September 2025

ER -

Król A , Król M , Szewczyński K. Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel. In Macioszek E, Sierpinski G, Jurdana I, editors, Smart and Environmentally Friendly Contemporary Road Traffic and Transportation Engineering Solutions. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2026. p. 42-54. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems). doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-14094-4_4

Hourly Distribution of the Probability of a Fire Accident in a Urban Road Tunnel

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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