Energy transformation in Poland and Sweden: Implementation of the SDG 7 goal and its impact on the demand for key energy carriers

The article presents research results regarding the degree of implementation of the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) in Poland against the background of the adopted benchmark, which was Sweden. The SDG Sustainable Development Index (SDI) was built. For this purpose, machine learning algorithms were used, such as random forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), linear regression algorithm, and the taxonomic method. These methods were used to build the Sustainable Development Calculator SDC 1.0 program. The combination of selected algorithms allowed to eliminate the disadvantages of commonly used methods, as well as to forecast the Sustainable Development Index (SDI) value until 2030, along with the determination of scenarios and errors of the created model. The obtained results indicate that Sweden achieved an SDI of 60 %, while in Poland it is three times lower. To increase the SDI value, emphasis should be placed on reducing energy consumption and dependence on imports of energy raw materials and energy. It is also important to develop new ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing energy efficiency and productivity will also help in achieving SDG 7. The obtained results were also used to analyze the impact of the implementation of the SDG 7 target on the energy balance of the countries selected for analysis. Research has shown that in each of the scenarios constructed in Poland, an energy gap of 0.2–0.3 EJ should be expected in 2030. The authors also modified the set of Goal 7 measures and examined the impact of access to critical resources necessary for the development of renewable energy on the SDI. Since in the coming years it will be impossible to base Poland's energy mix on renewable energy sources or nuclear energy, the authors proposed the implementation of clean coal technologies.