Carbon Emissions Modeling of Coal and Natural Gas Use in Poland’s Net-Zero Energy Transition

This study develops econometric models to examine greenhouse gas emissions associated with coal and natural gas consumption in Poland between 2015 and 2023. Poland has one of the most carbon-intensive energy systems in Europe. Three complementary log–log econometric models were estimated: a model explaining total CO₂ emissions, a model assessing emission intensity (CO₂ per unit of GDP), and a model capturing short-term variations in emission intensity. The results demonstrate that coal consumption remains the dominant determinant of absolute emissions, whereas the expansion of renewable energy significantly contributes to lowering the carbon intensity of economic growth. However, short-term fluctuations in emission intensity are still largely influenced by changes in fossil fuel consumption patterns. The findings highlight the gradual and sequential character of Poland’s energy transition, where gains in environmental efficiency precede a consistent reduction in total emissions. The proposed modeling framework offers an empirical basis for evaluating the effectiveness of climate and energy policies and can support the formulation of decarbonization strategies in economies heavily reliant on fossil fuels.