Analysis of the Relationship between Selected Ship and Propulsion System Characteristics and the Risk of Main Engine Turbocharger Explosion

The scientific aim of this paper is to analyse the topicality of the turbocharger explosions and to attempt to answer the question of whether some technical characteristics of the engine can be perceived as directly connected with the risk of the turbocharger explosion. Moreover, our objective was also to calculate the turbocharger explosion probability. This article presents the results of a quantitative and qualitative analysis of 42 explosions of marine main engine turbochargers occurring between 1977 and 2022. The number of explosions was analysed, and the average and instantaneous frequencies of turbocharger explosions each year were determined. An analysis was performed of the number of explosions with respect to the age and type of ship on which the accident occurred. An analysis of the contribution of different types of main engine to the studied population of explosions was also carried out. Criteria such as the number of strokes, engine speed, type of crank-piston mechanism, cylinder arrangement, engine power per cylinder, and number of cylinders were considered. An analysis was carried out of the disasters that had occurred, considering the contribution of the various engine manufacturers. An integrated distribution of the number of turbocharger explosions by year was presented, considering the engine speed, the maximum continuous rating of the engine, and the engine design. The analysis did not indicate a significant correlation between the type of ship and the number of explosions that occurred. More than half of the analysed population of explosions (median) occurred on vessels no older than 15 years. It is highly likely that engine type does not directly affect the number of turbocharger explosions and the risk of explosions. On the other hand, it is not possible to exclude the influence of the individual characteristics of an engine built to a particular manufacturer’s design on the magnitude of the risk of a turbocharger exploding during engine operation. Considering the number of ships worldwide, the probability of an explosion in a given year on a given ship is not less than 1.61 × 10⁻⁷.