ANALIZA WSTĘPNA WYBRANYCH ASPEKTÓW KRÓTKOTERMINOWYCH PROGNOZ ZAPOTRZEBOWANIA NA ENERGIĘ ELEKTRYCZNĄ W KONTEKŚCIE DYNAMICZNEGO ROZWOJU ŹRÓDEŁ ODNAWIALNYCH

Since 2015, there has been a dynamic quantitative increase in various installations of renewable energy sources, especially pro-consumer photovoltaic systems. The further exponential development of the market for new installations was stopped with the amendment to the RES Act, however, high electricity prices have a positive effect on the renewed increase in the profitability of this type of investment. Electricity produced by prosumers is usually consumed on an ongoing basis or, in the event of its excess, it is directed to consumers connected to the same low voltage grid. Only then is it transformed from low to medium voltage. Such an ordering of distribution allows for local price reductions, which in turn increases the attractiveness of the investment. In the electricity contracting schedule, 16 to 40 hours usually pass from the preparation of the forecast to its implementation. Such a short period of time places high demands on the quality of electricity demand prediction, which, with the increasing share of RES production, also makes this market dependent on the quality of weather forecasts. Especially the uncertainty related to the formation of cloudiness increases the risk of imbalance of the electricity supplier (seller). The article presents selected issues resulting from the increase in the share of electricity production from sources of high uncertainty, especially photovoltaic installations.