An analysis of the rebound impact of energy consumption and the factors that influence it in China's agricultural productivity

With China's agricultural sector being a major contributor to both the national economy and energy consumption, the rebound effect—the phenomenon where energy efficiency improvements lead to increased energy use—poses significant challenges to sustainable energy use. The motivation for this study stems from the need to understand the extent of this rebound impact and its underlying drivers, particularly in the context of China's agricultural modernization efforts. This study examines the rebound effect of energy consumption in China's agricultural productivity and the factors influencing it over the period from 1990 to 2023. Using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model, this research analyzes the relationship between energy consumption, agricultural productivity, and several influencing factors, including technological innovation, rural-urban migration, and financial development. The results reveal that (1) energy efficiency improvements have led to a significant rebound effect in China's agricultural sector, limiting potential energy savings, (2) technological advancements have mitigated the rebound effect to some extent, but the effect remains substantial, (3) rural-urban migration has contributed to labor shortages, increasing mechanization and energy demand, and (4) financial development has positively influenced both agricultural productivity and energy use, exacerbating the rebound effect. The study suggests that policymakers should focus on developing stricter energy efficiency standards and promoting technological innovations that reduce energy intensity in agriculture, while also addressing labor migration challenges to curb the rebound impact and achieve more sustainable agricultural growth.